Investing For Value

Tips E-19: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of Willdan Group Inc. (NASDAQ: WLDN)            Investment Thesis The company’s post-2022 shift toward integrated energy services has driven organic growth, improving margins and cash flow. However, a long history of weak returns, volatile profitability, and capital inefficiency tempers confidence. Even under optimistic assumptions, there is no margin of safety. Main Business Willdan has transformed into a predominantly energy-focused services provider. The business now operates mainly through its Energy segment, which contributed about 84% of 2024 revenue, serving U.S. utilities and public agencies. Growth Revenue growth has been strong historically and is increasingly driven by organic demand rather than acquisitions. Profitability While PAT grew at a 20.4% CAGR over the decade, profits were highly volatile and only recovered meaningfully after 2022. Gross and contribution margins show...

Value Investing Case Study 117-1: A fundamental analysis of i-Berhad to assess whether this is an asset-backed value with execution-driven upside.  

Tips E-18: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of Millicom International Cellular S.A. (NASDAQ: TIGO)       Investment Thesis Millicom represents a structurally improved Latin American telecom turnaround. Over the past decade, the company delivered a 24.8% CAGR in operating profit despite modest revenue growth. While intrinsic value suggests upside, optimistic assumptions and leverage justify waiting for a deeper margin of safety. Main Business Millicom now operates a streamlined, Latin America–only telecom platform. The business spans mobile, fixed broadband, and smaller ancillary services under the Tigo brand, with Colombia and Guatemala contributing roughly half of revenue. Growth From 2022–2024, reported revenue grew only 1.6% CAGR, broadly in line with regional telecom growth. Expansion drivers include FTTH rollout, fixed-wireless 5G, postpaid mobile gains, and faster-growing B2B services, though none are likely to materially exceed mark...

This is Chapter 2 of my book Mastering Value Investing: Practical Strategies for Real-World Results . Go there for links to the other chapters. Most investors say they believe in long-term investing. Very few actually behave that way when prices fall. Every market crisis exposes the same uncomfortable truth: prices move faster than businesses and fear almost always overwhelm logic. This is precisely why value investing continues to work - not because it is easy, but because it is psychologically hard. In this chapter, I explain why markets cannot be perfectly efficient as long as humans are involved. Short-term prices are driven by narratives, headlines, and panic. Long-term outcomes, however, are driven by business fundamentals. I also share how I learned to separate true bargains from value traps. A cheap stock is not automatically a good investment. Declining industries, weak business models, and fragile balance sheets can stay “cheap” for years.  This chapter intr...

Tips E-17: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of Itron Inc. (NASDAQ: ITRI)   Investment Thesis Over the past decade, the company shifted from hardware-centric metering to networked and software-driven solutions, unlocking operating leverage and strong EPS growth. While fundamentals have clearly improved and financial risk is low, the stock price already reflects optimistic assumptions about future growth and margins. Main Business Itron provides smart meters, communication networks, and analytics software that enable utilities to manage energy and water more efficiently. The company is now best viewed as a grid technology platform rather than a pure hardware supplier, serving primarily North American utilities. Growth Despite operating in a structurally growing smart grid market, Itron’s revenue growth has remained modest over the past decade. From 2015 to 2024, revenue grew at just 2.9% CAGR. Profitability Itron converted low revenue growth into excep...