Investing For Value

Tips E-58: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of TSS, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSSI)     Investment Thesis TSS Inc’s transformation into an AI-focused data center systems integrator offers substantial opportunities. However, heavy customer concentration, declining margins and limited competitive moats raise questions about whether recent growth can translate into sustainable shareholder value. Main Business TSSI procures, assembles and deploys complex computing systems for AI data centers. Its competitive strengths lie in technical execution, deployment speed and customer relationships rather than proprietary technology or structural barriers to competition. Growth TSSI achieved exceptional revenue growth, outperforming larger competitors, but much of this expansion depends on one major customer. Revenue grew at a 37.6% annual growth rate over 2017–2025.  Profitability Despite surging revenue, TSSI's declining gross margins and limited operating leverage rais...

Fundamentals 35. This article explains the concept of VERA, short for Value-investment Equity Research Agent, my AI-based value-investing engine.   Over the past few months, I have been developing an AI-based fundamental analysis tool called VERA, short for Value-investment Equity Research Agent. The goal was to have an AI assistant that could help me carry out a fundamental analysis of a company. I am still fine-tuning VERA. But it has reached a stage where it can produce a first draft of a company’s fundamental analysis. Of course, I still have to edit it so that it reads better. But the gist of the analysis is there. Rather than wait for perfection, I decided to start publishing the various edited versions on my blog so that I can get the appropriate feedback. Each article aims to answer two questions: Is this a good business? And is it worth buying at today’s price? If you have ever read an equity research report and wondered how an analyst moves from financial d...

Tips E-57: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of Confluent Inc.    Investment Thesis Confluent operates in a fast-growing technology market, but its journey toward profitability remains unfinished despite strong revenue momentum. IBM's USD 11 billion acquisition offer raises an interesting investment question: why sell a promising business before its growth potential is fully realised? The answer depends on Confluent's business economics, future profitability and valuation. Main Business Confluent provides real-time data streaming infrastructure that enables businesses to process information immediately rather than after events occur. Its technology supports applications such as fraud detection, digital transactions and AI systems.  Growth Revenue reached USD 1.17 billion in 2025, following approximately 23% annual growth over the preceding two years. Increasing adoption of event-driven applications and AI-enabled systems provides further opportunities....

This is Chapter 22 of my book Mastering Value Investing: Practical Strategies for Real-World Results . Go there for links to the other chapters. For more than two decades, my portfolio compounded at about 9% to 10% annually, compared with roughly 6% to 8% for the Malaysian market. I regarded this as evidence that disciplined value investing worked. But experience eventually forced me to confront an uncomfortable question: was I applying the right investment skills in the wrong market? Over the same period, major US indices delivered returns exceeding 10% annually. I may have been fishing skilfully, but in a pond with weaker currents. This was only one of several lessons from my investing journey. Another lesson was that a company may look cheap because earnings are temporarily high, but there is no margin of safety if its underlying economics are deteriorating. I also learned to be wary of turnarounds. Identifying what management must fix is much easier than actually fixing...

Value Investing Case Study 136-1: A fundamental analysis of Gamuda Berhad to assess whether it is an investment opportunity.     Over the past decade, Gamuda has transformed from a Malaysian construction, property and toll-road group into a regional infrastructure-development platform.  Reported revenue grew more than sevenfold, driven largely by overseas construction projects. But revenue tells only part of the story. Profit after tax in 2025 was only about 1.5 times its 2016 level. ROIC reached 4.2% in 2025, only slightly above the 3.6% achieved in 2016. Why did profit fail to keep pace? Gamuda’s business mix shifted towards high-revenue but lower-margin construction, while its higher-margin concessions were divested. Its gross profit and contribution margins consequently declined. As fixed costs represent only a small part of total costs, greater scale alone may not deliver substantial operating leverage. The peer comparison adds another warning. Gamu...