Investing For Value

Tips E-22: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of Huron Consulting Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HURN)       Investment Thesis Over the past decade, Huron Consulting Group improved margins, returns, and business mix, especially in healthcare and education. Huron has become a leaner, more capital-efficient consulting business, but valuation leaves insufficient margin of safety.  Main Business Huron operates an integrated consulting, managed services, and digital solutions model anchored in regulated end markets. Healthcare (~50%) and education (~32%) dominate, supported by digital platforms in analytics, automation, and enterprise systems that deepen client embedment. Growth From 2015–2024, revenue grew at about 8.7% CAGR, with an estimated two-thirds attributable to acquisitions. While Huron’s core markets grow modestly, acquisitions have been the primary lever to scale capabilities, Profitability Profit growth reflects revenue scale and cost disciplin...

This is Chapter 4 of my book Mastering Value Investing: Practical Strategies for Real-World Results . Go there for links to the other chapters. Most investors think they understand risk. They don’t. They obsess over volatility, price swings, red numbers on a screen and completely miss the risk that actually destroys wealth: permanent capital loss. This chapter dismantles the most common myth in investing: that higher returns require higher risk. In reality, the biggest losses don’t come from market crashes. They come from owning the wrong businesses, at the wrong price, for the wrong reasons. I explain why price volatility is often noise and why some of the world’s best investments looked terrifying in the short term, while others that felt “safe” quietly went to zero. The difference was not luck. It was business quality, financial strength, and decision discipline. I lay out a practical, qualitative risk framework - not academic formulae - that I use to identify risks bef...

Tips E-21: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of OSI Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIS)      Investment Thesis OSI Systems benefit from proven execution, secular growth exposure, and rising operating leverage, which have driven steady improvements in profitability and returns. However, optimistic assumptions are already embedded in the share price. Main Business OSI Systems operates as an integrated solutions provider across security, healthcare, and electronics manufacturing markets. Its core businesses include security screening systems, patient monitoring devices, and specialized electronics. Over the past decade, OSI has shifted from a product-centric model toward delivering integrated, mission-critical systems, with security now contributing over two-thirds of total revenue. Growth Revenue growth has consistently outpaced end-market expansion, supported by acquisitions, organic demand, and global diversification. From 2016 to 2025, revenue grew at an 8.2...

Value Investing Case Study 118-1: A fundamental analysis of SD Guthrie Berhad to assess whether it is a quality cyclical business.    SD Guthrie Berhad (SDG) is one of the world’s largest palm oil producers, but size alone does not make a great investment. At first glance, the business looks solid.  SDG controls a vast, long-life plantation landbank across multiple countries, complemented by downstream processing that helps stabilise earnings. It has invested heavily in sustainability, proprietary planting material, and precision agriculture.  But the deeper story is more nuanced. Revenue growth since listing has been impressive, yet much of it coincided with commodity price upswings, not structural expansion.  A closer look at unit economics revealed that costs are sticky, while selling prices fluctuate sharply. Small changes in pricing translate into large swings in profits. While SDG has improved cost discipline and reduced fixed costs relative to r...

Tips E-20: A 1-minute summary of my fundamental analysis of Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CCOI)   Investment Thesis The Sprint wireline acquisition materially weakened near-term margins and returns, masking Cogent’s historically strong, cash-generative network economics. While management has a credible integration plan to restore profitability, the market already prices in much of this recovery. Main Business Cogent is a facilities-based global IP network operator with a strong on-net model and scalable backbone infrastructure. The company delivers IP transit, VPN, and bandwidth services across 56 countries, with North America contributing about 86% of revenue.  Growth Revenue growth was historically steady and acquisition-driven recently. From 2015–2022, Cogent grew organically at a 5.5% CAGR before revenue jumped 53% in 2023 due to the Sprint acquisition. However, 2024 growth slowed to 7%, and early 2025 showed contraction. Profitability Sprint ...