Is PWF an investment opportunity?

Value Investing Case Study 90-1: PWF’s Growth Story: A golden egg or just chicken feed? A fundamental analysis of PWF to find the real story.    

Is PWF an investment opportunity?
PWF Corporation Berhad (PWF or the Group) is one of Malaysia’s leading poultry producers. It operates a fully integrated business model that spans feed manufacturing, breeding, broiler and layer farming, poultry processing, and distribution. 

Over the past decade, the company has transitioned from a traditional poultry farm into a modern, efficient, and technology-driven player. With a focus on automation and sustainability, PWF has expanded its operations to meet the demand for poultry and eggs.

As an investor, the key question is whether PWF presents a compelling investment opportunity. Have sustainable factors driven its revenue growth, or was it merely a short-term boost from government subsidies? Can PWF continue to grow profitably in a post-subsidy environment? 

Join me as I investigate PWF’s operating performance, financial position, and valuation. My findings suggest that this is a potential business investment, but there is not enough margin of safety at the current market price.

Should you go and buy it? Well, read my Disclaimer. 

Contents

  • Background
  • Operating performance
  • Growth prospects
  • Peer performance
  • Financial position
  • Valuation
  • Conclusion
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Background

PWF is one of Malaysia’s largest poultry players. The Group primarily engages in integrated poultry farming, with a vertically integrated business model covering the entire poultry supply chain. The core activities include:
  • Feed manufacturing – Producing poultry feed at their feed mill plant in Bukit Minyak, Penang.
  • Breeding of Day-Old Chicks (DOC) – Operating breeder farms in Sungai Batu (Kedah), Hulu Selama & Taiping (Perak), and Alor Gajah (Melaka).
  • Broiler and layer farming – Raising broiler chickens and producing eggs. Their broiler farms in Kedah, Perak, and Penang produce up to 6 million kg of broiler meat per month, while their layer farm in Pendang, Kedah, has a production capacity of 1 million eggs per day.
  • Poultry Processing – Processing and distributing broiler chickens from their processing plant in Batu Caves, Selangor.
  • Sales & Distribution – Supplying broiler chickens, processed chicken, and table eggs to wholesalers, supermarkets, grocery stores, processing plants, and market vendors

Over the past decade, PWF has transformed from a traditional poultry producer into a fully integrated poultry company with modern farming, processing, and distribution capabilities. 
  • Expansion and modernization of farming operations. 
    • Broiler farming expansion. Since 2016, the company has been increasing its broiler farming capacity by investing in closed-house farming systems, which improve feed conversion ratio and reduce mortality rates.
    • Breeder and layer farm expansion. A new breeder farm was developed in Sungai Batu, Kedah, while the layer farm in Pendang, Kedah expanded with additional layer houses, increasing egg production capacity.
    • Farm infrastructure & sustainability investments. PWF has focused on automation, biosecurity, and environmental sustainability, including investments in solar energy for its farm.
  • Move into downstream processing and value-added products. This shift reduced reliance on raw poultry sales, allowing PWF to capture more value from each bird.
    • 2017. Acquired a food processing unit to expand into processed chicken products, fresh, chilled, and frozen poultry.
    • 2018. Further investment into high-margin, value-added food products to capture a larger share of the poultry supply chain.

The Group views its business as one operating segment. At the same time, all its activities and customers are based in Malaysia.

Note that in this article, PWF 2024 performance was based on the LTM Sep 2024 results.

Operating performance

The Malaysian poultry and egg markets are mature ones. Based on the data from Statista, I estimated the growth rate on a kg per capita basis to be:
  • 0.9 % from 2014 to 2029 for poultry.
  • 2.8 % from 2018 to 2030 for eggs.

As such you should not be surprised to find out the PWF achieved a 6.9 % CAGR in revenue from 2015 to 2024. I would classify the revenue into 2 periods: post-2021 and 2015 to 2021. Refer to the left part of Chart 1.

The post-2021 revenue was much higher due to a combination of higher selling prices and increased production volumes.

PWF Chart 1: Performance Index and Margins
Chart 1: Performance Index and Margins

Profits followed a similar trend with leaps in 2022 and 2023 due to the following:
  • The Group received tax-exempt government subsidies of RM 45.3 million and RM 66.2 million in 2022 and 2023. These were for egg and broiler producers due to government-imposed price controls. However, the subsidy program for broilers was discontinued in November 2023. The subsidy for eggs seemed to have continued to 2024 although there has been some announcement about a review in late 2024.
  • The subsidy offset the impairments and write-offs in 2022 amounting to about RM 39 million. Most impairments related to production assets were classified under the cost of sales. Non-operational impairments (e.g., goodwill, investment properties) were in administrative/other expenses. You can see the impact of this on the SGA margin in the right part of Chart 1.
  • Despite the lower PBT in 2022 compared to 2021, PAT in 2022 was higher primarily due to a significantly lower tax expense in 2022. There were higher tax adjustments in 2021 that led to a 74.8 % effective tax rate compared to the 5.3 % tax rate in 2022. 

I would rate its average performance over the past decade as poor. Over the past decade, ROIC averaged 2% while ROE averaged 5%. These were lower than the current cost of funds suggesting that it did not create shareholders’ value.

The main positive return picture was the better performance over the past few years boosted by government subsidies. 

To get a better understanding of the drivers of growth and profitability, I carried out the following analysis.
  • A breakdown of the revenue into broiler and eggs based on the average selling price and production volume provided in the Annual Reports. Refer to the right part of Chart 2.
  • A breakdown of the costs into fixed and variable costs is shown in the left part of Chart 2.

PWF Chart 2: Operating Profit and Segment Revenue
Chart 2: Operating Profit and Segment Revenue
Note to Op Model. I broke down the operating profits into fixed costs and variable costs.
  • Fixed cost = SGA, Depreciation & Amortization and Others.
  • Variable cost = Cost of Sales that excluded Depreciation & Amortization.
  • Contribution = Revenue – Variable Cost.
  • Contribution margin = Contribution/Revenue.

You can see that broiler contributed a bigger portion of the revenue. The estimated split in 2023 was around 70% from broilers and 30% from eggs. 

Broiler revenue grew at 9.5 % CAGR from 2015 to 2023. Egg revenue grew at a slower pace at 6.4 % CAGR.

Note that the higher proportion of broilers reflects the Malaysia consumption profile of 51 kg per capita for poultry and 26 kg per capita for eggs (Source: Statista). The average selling price for poultry was RM 9.40 per kg and RM 6.70 per kg for eggs. (Source: ChatGPT).

The operating profit profile also showed an interesting point. The average post-2021 contribution margin was much lower than the 2015 to 2021 average. This was mainly due to higher operating costs, price controls, and shifts in cost structures. 
  • Feed cost surged in 2021-2023, driven by higher global commodity prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat. There was also Ringgit depreciation, making imported feed ingredients more expensive.
  • The Malaysian government implemented price ceilings on broilers and eggs in 2022-2023 to control inflation. This prevented PWF from fully passing on cost increases to consumers, squeezing margins.
  • Labor costs increased due to minimum wage hikes in Malaysia, along with higher costs for foreign workers. Energy costs also surged.

There was also an increase in fixed costs post-2021 due to expansion. PWF invested heavily in farm expansion and modernization, leading to higher depreciation and fixed costs.

Growth prospects 

The operating profit profile shows that to grow its profits, PWF needs to either grow revenue, improve its contribution margin, or reduce its fixed costs. 

PWF is well-positioned for revenue growth, driven by capacity expansion, and demand resilience. I see the following as drivers of growth.
  • Expansion of production capacity
    • Broiler division. Additional farmhouses were constructed in Trong, Padang Gajah, and Bukit Merah.
    • Layer division. Investments in warehouse expansion and solar power systems are expected to improve efficiency.
    • Broiler breeder division. There was a 16.5% growth in day-old chicks (DOC) production in 2023.
  • There were improved margins in the Feed division due to better cost management and lower raw material costs.
  • Conversion of open-system farms to closed-house systems will improve efficiency and biosecurity. It will also reduce bird mortality rates.
  • Price trends. Poultry demand is resilient, as chicken is the most affordable protein source in Malaysia. Chart 3 shows that over the past decade, PWF achieved increased volumes of broilers and eggs sold as well as increased average selling prices. I expect these trends to continue. 

PWF Chart 3: Volume and Selling Price Trend
Chart 3: Volume and Selling Price Trend

PWF has also stated its plans to expand downstream into the fast-food industry with its partnership with L.A. Chicken. Diversification into food services could enhance margins and stabilize earnings.

Efficiency

Profit growth could also come from improving efficiency. The improving gross profitability post-2021 is a good sign. Refer to the left part of Chart 1. However, the picture is not so clear-cut when I look at other operating and capital efficiency metrics. 
  • Operating efficiency as per the left part of Chart 4. Post-2021, there were improvements in all the operating metrics. 
  • Capital efficiency as per the right part of Chart 4. Post-2021, apart from the improving asset turnover, there was no improving trend in the other 3 metrics.

The picture is that while there is improving operating efficiency, it is not so clear-cut for capital efficiency.

PWF Chart 4: Efficiency
Chart 4: Efficiency

Peer comparison

I compared PWF's performance with several Bursa-listed companies that operate in similar segments, such as broiler and egg production, feed manufacturing, and poultry processing.

I excluded Leong Hup International and QR Resources as these had revenue that was much larger than the panel companies.

You can see from Table 1 that PWF 2024 revenue is among the lower among its peers. It also had the lowest growth rate. 

PWF Table 1: Peer revenue
Table 1: Peer revenue

I looked at the trends of 4 metrics to get a sense of how well PWF performed compared to its peers. Refer to Charts 5 and 6. 

Except for its EPS, I would PWF performance as average for the other 3 metrics. Both Lay Hong and Teo Seng Capital seemed to have performed better than PWF. PWF’s smaller scale could have led to this. Moving forward, cost control and production expansion will be critical for PWF to improve competitiveness.

PWF Chart 5: Bursa Peer Return on Capital and EBIT Margin
Chart 5: Bursa Peer Return on Capital and EBIT Margin

PWF Chart 6: Bursa Peer Levered Free Cash Flow Margin and EPS
Chart 6: Bursa Peer Levered Free Cash Flow Margin and EPS

Case Notes

Investing in a mature company like PWF requires a different approach compared to growth stocks. Here are key factors to evaluate from a fundamental analysis perspective:
  • Business model & competitive position. Mature companies typically have consistent revenue rather than rapid growth. A strong brand, cost advantage, or industry dominance protects against competition. 
  • Profitability. Margins should be consistent over time. Mature companies should generate steady returns on capital.
  • Mature companies should generate reliable FCFF to support dividends and Reinvestment.
  • Growth potential. Even if revenue is flat, efficiency improvements, buybacks, or margin expansion can drive EPS growth.
  • Capital allocation. Watch out for red flags such as overinvestment in low-return projects instead of returning cash to shareholders.

As you can see, there are many issues to consider when looking at such companies. You need to carry out a fundamental analysis to flesh out the nuances. This requires expertise and time. 

Visualizing a company’s business performance and investment risk (by comparing market price with intrinsic value) is one way to shortcut the process. The Fundamental Mapper helps investors make informed decisions as it provides such insights in an easy-to-see format.

You can see the position of PWF as of 10 Feb 2025 in the Fundamental Mapper chart below.

Download the Fundamental Mapper app now on Xifu to get investment insights into Bursa Malaysia companies

 PWF Fundamental Mapper 10 Feb 2025

PS: You can see that there are some differences between the Fundamental Mapper and the peer comparison charts. PWF is mapped as the one with the best fundamentals in the Fundamental Mapper. However, this is not reflected in the peer comparison even though 3 of the peers are covered in the Fundamental Mapper. 

I would rely more on the Fundamental Mapper as it covered 20 metrics giving a more comprehensive view. In the Fundamental Mapper the factors have different weights based on the impact on the business value. For example, the risk factor has almost double the weight of the growth factor. 




Financial position

I would rate PWF as sound financially. Its key negative point is the unsustainable Reinvestment rate. But this is more than offset by the following positive points.  
  • As of Sep 2024, it had a 15 % debt-equity ratio. This has come down from its 2020 high of 55 %.
  • As of Sep 2024, it had RM 28 million cash. This is equal to 5 % of its total assets. 
  • Over the past decade it generated positive cash flow from operations every year. During this period, it generated RM 471 million cash flow from operations compared to the RM 172 million PAT. This is a very good cash flow conversion ratio.
  • It had a good capital allocation plan as shown in Table 2. The cash flow from operations was sufficient to cover CAPEX with the excess used to reduce loans and return to shareholders. 

PWF Table 2: Sources and Uses of Funds 2014 to 2025
Table 2: Sources and Uses of Funds 2014 to 2025

The main negative point was the high Reinvestment rate. Over the past decade, this averaged 123 %. This is not a sustainable rate as there is no NOPAT left for distribution to the shareholders. 

Reinvestment = CAPEX & Acquisitions – Depreciation & Amortization + increase in Net Working Capital. 

But I suspect that this high rate is due to the various expansion plans. For example, the investment in Property, Plant, and Equipment grew from RM 370 million in 2015 to RM 588 million in 2023. 

In the long term, I would expect the reinvestment rate to come down to a sustainable level represented by the fundamental growth equation. 

Valuation

I valued PWF based on the following picture.

PWR will deliver 10% growth in Year 1 which will reduce proportionately to 4% in the terminal year (Year 6). This 10% is the CAGR in revenue from 2021 to 2024.  The base revenue would be the 2024 revenue.

There would not be any more government subsidy. Accordingly, I based my analysis on the operating profit. I took the 2022 to 2024 average margins and fixed costs as the base values subject to the following:
  • I added back the RM 39 million impairments and write-offs in 2022. 
  • RM 11.45 million was added back to the cost of sales while RM 27.26 million was added back to the cost of sales. 

The company would improve its operating efficiency so that the contribution margin in the terminal year (Year 6) would be 10 % higher than the base value. The base contribution margin was the 2022 to 2024 value adjusted for the impairments and write-offs stated in the preceding paragraph.

The company would improve its Reinvestment rate so that it follows the fundamental growth equation in the terminal year. The base Reinvestment rate would be the past 10 years average.

I assumed a nominal tax rate of 24%.

On such a basis I obtained an intrinsic value of RM 0.93 per share compared to its market price of RM 0.83 per share (10 Fen 2025). There is only a 10% margin of safety.

Valuation model

I valued PWF based on a multi-stage valuation model as shown in Table 3. 

The basic equations used in the model are:

Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) = EBIT(1 – t) – Reinvestment.

EBIT = Revenue X Contribution margin – Fixed cost. The earning was based on the business model shown in the left part of Chart 2.

Reinvestment was derived from the Reinvestment margin.

PWF Table 3: Sample calculation
Table 3: Sample calculation 
Notes
a. Proportionate reduction
b. Pegged to growth rate
c. Assumed proportionate improvement
d. Assumed growth at the terminal rate
e. Revenue X Margin and after accounting for Fixed costs
f. Assumed proportionate improvement
g. b X f
h. FCFF for each year = e - g
j. Assumed constant D/E ratio. Refer to the WACC table
k. NPV for each year = (h X j)
l. Terminal for the year discounted at terminal growth rate
m. 5 years NPV + terminal value
n. Inclusive of any excess TCE. Non-operating assets, MI and Debt
o. Based on the number of shares

The cost of funds was based on the first page results of a Google search for “PWF WACC”. Refer to Table 4.

PWF Table 4: Estimating the cost of funds
Table 4: Estimating the cost of funds

Risks and limitations

I consider my valuation of PWF a bit on the optimistic side. Refer to Chart 7.
  • The projected FCFF is a steady uptrend whereas historically it was more volatile and the trend is less obvious.
  • The projected terminal revenue is 50% higher than the base revenue. This probably meant PWF winning market share.

PWF Chart 7: Projection
Chart 7: Projection

The valuation model resulted in the following:
  • Average 6% ROIC compared to the 2023 to 2024 average of 3%.
  • Average RM 0.10 EPS per year compared to the 2023/24 average of RM 0.16 per share. The 2023/24 average value was boosted by the government subsidy of about RM 0.20 per share. The subsidy is tax-exempt so it is not an exact apple-to-apple comparison. But it points to a low EPS without the subsidy. 
  • Average 6% EBIT margin compared to the 203/24 average of 4%.

Is there an upside to the valuation? My valuation model is sensitive to changes in the improvement in the contribution margin in the terminal year. 

For example, if I assumed a 13% improvement in the contribution margin instead of the 10%, I would obtain a 30 % margin of safety. This 13% is not impossible as the 2024 contribution margin is 13% higher than the base contribution margin. 

The other point to note is there seems to be a bigger margin of safety in the Fundamental Mapper compared to my analysis. This is because I have excluded the subsidy from my valuation. As mentioned earlier this is substantial compared to its EPS. 

Conclusion

PWF has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade. It has evolved from a traditional poultry producer into a fully integrated player in Malaysia’s poultry industry. 

Its investments in modern farming infrastructure, closed-house systems, and downstream processing, have provided it with a potential growth path. This is despite serving a mature market with a single-digit growth rate.

PWF’s revenue has grown at a 6.9% CAGR from 2015 to 2024, with a notable surge post-2021 due to higher selling prices and increased production capacity. Profit growth followed a similar pattern. However, part of its profitability in 2022 and 2023 was boosted by government subsidies. These are now being phased out, presenting a key risk factor for future margins.

Despite this, PWF’s balance sheet remains strong, with reduced debt levels and healthy cash reserves. The company has demonstrated robust cash flow generation, reinvesting aggressively into business expansion. 

The key question for investors is whether PWF can sustain its earnings growth without subsidies and how well it can navigate rising input costs and market volatility.

While PWF offers potential for long-term investors who believe in its business model, there is not enough margin of safety. 

Investment thesis

Over the past decade, PWF has steadily expanded its operations and improved efficiency. Its 6.9% CAGR revenue growth from 2015 to 2024 came from both volume and price uptrends. I expect these uptrends to continue providing PWF with a growth path.

However, the removal of broiler subsidies in late 2023 could impact short-term profitability. Despite this PWF’s operational efficiencies and financial strength position it as a long-term investment opportunity. The only challenge is that there is not enough margin of safety at the current market price.

Case Notes

An investment thesis is a vital tool for any investor because it provides clarity, focus, and direction in decision-making. Learning how to draft an investment thesis is crucial for investors, especially those who want to make well-informed, rational, and successful investment decisions. 
  • It defines your reasoning.
  • A clear thesis encourages disciplined decision-making.
  • It helps assess risks.
  • It provides a benchmark to evaluate whether the investment is performing as expected.

An investment thesis is not set in stone - it is a living document. If the facts change, you can update your thesis or adjust your investment accordingly. This approach keeps you grounded and aligned with your investment principles.








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I am not an investment adviser, security analyst, or stockbroker.  The contents are meant for educational purposes and should not be taken as any recommendation to purchase or dispose of shares in the featured companies.   Investments or strategies mentioned on this website may not be suitable for you and you should have your own independent decision regarding them. 

The opinions expressed here are based on information I consider reliable but I do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and should not be relied on as such. 

I may have equity interests in some of the companies featured.

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